Housing Crisis in Australia: Deeper Trouble Ahead

6

Issues such as high construction costs have accelerated the cost of building in major cities at a rate that outpaces property price growth. It increasingly appears more financially sound to purchase an existing home rather than build a new one.

According to Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's research director, "the cost of construction is yet to decline and it remains approximately 30% more expensive to build or renovate now compared to pre-COVID times," reflecting a prolonged period of inflating expenses.

SQM Research's founder and managing director, Louis Christopher, has expressed concern. He pointed out that "indicators show no signs of an imminent increase in housing supply," and has projected that there will be only "138,000 new dwellings completed by FY25."

PropTrack's executive manager for economic research, Cameron Kusher, noted, "Building approvals have plunged to their lowest in a decade. The pandemic-induced rise in construction costs, labour shortages, and 12-year high interest rates have severely impacted new constructions."

Adding to the discourse, Ben Burston, chief economist at Knight Frank, warned that "restoring high levels of housing construction will be a laborious task" due to the steep increments in both construction and financing costs.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that only 163,800 homes were approved for construction in the year up to May. This is 32% (or 76,200 homes) short of the Albanese government’s 240,000 annual housing target.

It is crucial to note that the Albanese government’s target of 240,000 homes annually is unprecedented. The closest the nation came to meeting such a goal was in 2017 when 223,600 homes were built, which was still 7% below the target. This was achieved with a cash rate of 1.5%, compared to the current rate of 4.35%.

Back in 2017, builders also faced lower construction costs (some 40% less than today) and did not compete for labour with state government infrastructure projects. In comparison, data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) show that nearly 3,000 construction firms went bankrupt in the 2023-2024 financial year, reducing the sector’s productive capacity.

Given these macroeconomic conditions, it seems highly improbable for the Albanese government’s housing targets to be met, and dwelling completion rates are likely to remain low in the near term.

Ultimately, a long-term resolution to Australia’s housing shortage may necessitate reducing net overseas migration, hence easing the population demand below the nation’s housing and infrastructure supply capacity.

If these structural issues aren't addressed, Australia's housing crisis is poised to exacerbate.

Published:Tuesday, 16th Jul 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Auditor Deregistered After Brite Advisers Collapse 30 Jun 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has deregistered auditor David Makowa, previously of DM Advisory Services, due to his role in the downfall of financial advice firm Brite Advisers. This decision follows Makowa's acceptance of a court-enforceable undertaking in which he agreed to surrender his auditor registration permanently, pledging never to re-apply. - read more

US Involvement in Israel-Iran Conflict Sparks Financial Market Concerns 23 Jun 2025: Paige Estritori The escalating likelihood of the United States engaging militarily in the Israel-Iran conflict has raised alarm among investors, potentially leading to significant market volatility. This concern was highlighted by the global financial advisory firm, deVere Group, as tensions heighten in the Middle East. - read more

Global Markets Brace for Oil Price Surge Following US Strike on Iran 23 Jun 2025: Paige Estritori The recent US military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has raised expectations of a significant oil price spike as global markets prepare to resume trading. Announced by former President Donald Trump, the attack marks an increased US involvement in the Middle East, which analysts believe could lead to heightened volatility across financial markets. - read more

Trump Mulls Change of Heart on Firing Fed Chair Powell 21 Jun 2025: Paige Estritori US President Donald Trump is once again contemplating the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whom he has criticized for not lowering interest rates. Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with Powell's decisions in a Truth Social post, suggesting he might change his mind about firing him. Despite acknowledging that his strong criticisms make Powell's task challenging, Trump remains focused on his agenda for reduced rates, especially with Powell's term set to end in May 2026. - read more

APRA Clarifies HELP Debt Considerations in Home Loan Assessments 20 Jun 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has released pivotal updates to the Prudential Practice Guide APG 223 and Reporting Standard ARS 223.0, focusing on how Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) should integrate Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) debt into home loan evaluations. The changes are aimed at enhancing regulatory clarity and acknowledging the individual circumstances of borrowers, including the nuances of their HELP debts, without compromising prudent lending practices. - read more