US Economy Faces Potential Hard Landing as Tariff Volatility Persists
US Economy Faces Potential Hard Landing as Tariff Volatility Persists
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
The US economy is teetering on the edge of a hard landing, with ongoing tariff disruptions continuing to shake the market, as noted in American Century Investments' latest forecast.
Despite some optimism, the challenges persist, keeping hopes for a softer economic transition at bay.
Richard Weiss, the Chief Investment Officer for American Century’s Multi-Asset Strategies, highlighted the weakening position of US equities, exacerbated by tariff tensions. Initial forecasts, made prior to tariff announcements, may require revisions to account for these extensive impacts as the year progresses.
Weiss noted that while cash returns are expected to outpace inflation, forecasts for longer bonds remain buoyant. The outlook for US equities, however, has been tempered, particularly with a forecasted decline in P/E multiples for large-cap stocks.
A decline in return estimates for US large-cap equities to 6.50% from last year's 7.25% indicates decreasing valuations. Conversely, projections for small-cap and non-US developed market equities appear more stable, promising superior returns relative to large and mid-sized US counterparts. Yet, US growth stocks could outshine others in terms of earnings growth.
The report also reveals that certain fixed-income categories remain largely unchanged from prior year predictions, though a slight drop in high yield and convertible bond returns is anticipated.
American Century's strategic plan incorporates six scenarios, ranging from soft to hard landings, technological impacts, policy shocks, climate change implications, to shifting demographics characterised by an aging population. These scenarios provide a framework for understanding potential market transformations over the next five years.
The expectation is for US large-cap growth stocks to undergo a correction in valuation multiples, although earnings are likely to stay robust. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks are slated to outpace large-cap value stocks in earnings without significant valuation shifts.
Weiss confirmed that despite the recent downturns in return expectations, these forecasts were prepared before the US imposed broad tariffs, impacting a wide array of imports. Such late developments have intensified concerns over possible economic stagnation or stagflation, as reflected in American Century’s detailed market scenarios.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
ASIC’s Moneysmart updated its insurance guidance on 16 July 2026, and while the information is broad, it carries a practical message for anyone preparing to finance a jetski: the loan repayment is only one part of the ownership cost. Insurance can affect your monthly budget, your lender’s requirements and your ability to recover financially if the watercraft is damaged, stolen or involved in an accident. - read more
ASIC’s 24 June 2026 review of car finance has put a sharp spotlight on how asset loans are sold, priced and managed in Australia. While the report focused on motor vehicles rather than personal watercraft, the lessons are highly relevant for anyone considering jetski loans, especially where finance is arranged through a dealer, broker or other third-party distributor. - read more
Canstar’s latest boat loan comparison update puts a timely spotlight on how Australians are funding life on the water, and the lessons are directly relevant for anyone considering a new or used jetski. While a personal watercraft may be smaller than a cabin cruiser or fishing boat, the finance principles are much the same: the right loan is not simply the one with the lowest advertised rate, but the one that fits your income, usage plans and repayment comfort. - read more
Seafarms Group Limited has recently expanded its credit agreement with Avatar Finance, increasing the facility from AUD 8.5 million to AUD 16.5 million. This strategic move aims to support the reacquisition of key assets for Project Sea Dragon, a venture poised to become the world's largest prawn farming operation. - read more
Austal Limited has been awarded a significant contract valued at over AUD 1 billion (approximately USD 680 million) to design and construct 18 Landing Craft Medium (LCM) vessels for the Australian Army. This contract marks a pivotal expansion in Austal's defense shipbuilding operations within Australia. - read more
When it comes to purchasing a jet ski, choosing the right brand is crucial for ensuring a safe and enjoyable experience. There are various jet ski brands available in Australia, each with their unique features and specifications. - read more
If you’re looking to finance a new or used jet ski, you may be wondering if it’s possible to get a loan with bad credit. The short answer is yes – and it may be easier than you think, but there are a few things you need to know before you start the process of applying for a loan. - read more
Jetskis are quickly becoming a popular pastime in Australia, offering an exhilarating way to enjoy the sun and surf. The freedom and excitement they provide make them a must-have for many water enthusiasts. With their growing popularity, more Australians are turning to jetskis as their next big purchase. - read more
Owning a jetski is a thrilling and liberating experience for many Australians. The beautiful coastlines and rivers offer the perfect backdrop for enjoying the freedom and excitement that a jetski provides. - read more
Jet skiing is one of the most exhilarating water sports out there and owning a Jet Ski can be incredibly exciting. However, along with the excitement comes the responsibility of ensuring that your Jet Ski is well-maintained. Jet Ski maintenance is important for many reasons, and in this article, we will explore the reasons behind why it should be a top priority for any Jet Ski owner. - read more
Knowledgebase
Tax Deferral: A situation where a taxpayer is allowed to delay paying taxes on income until a future date, commonly seen in retirement accounts.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.