The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has opted to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35% for the fourth consecutive time this year, a decision that comes amidst a complex balancing act to manage inflation’s differential impacts on various demographics.
This announcement was made following the RBA’s two-day meeting, where Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the nuanced economic landscape. Although inflation has markedly decreased from its peak in 2022 due to higher interest rates tempering household spending, the rate of decline has decelerated according to recent analytics.
In the past year leading to April, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) noted a 3.6% rise in headline terms, while core inflation, excluding volatile items and holiday travel, climbed by 4.1%—a rate comparable to December 2023. According to the Board’s statement, excessive demand continues to put pressure on the economy, exacerbated by domestic cost pressures and tight labor markets.
While labor market conditions have relaxed, they remain more constricted than what is conducive for sustained full employment and target inflation, with wages growth appearing to have peaked but still surpassing sustainable levels given current productivity trends. Recent data revisions indicate past-year consumption was stronger than earlier suggested, although output growth hindered and per capita consumption declined as households cut discretionary spending under inflation’s weight.
The Governor’s stance reiterates that economic forecasts remain “uncertain,” navigating a bumpy path back to the target inflation rate of 2-3% by mid-2025, aiming for a midpoint by 2026. This follows recent consumption data, showing tepid economic momentum with sluggish GDP growth, a higher unemployment rate, and an unexpectedly mild rise in wages.
Despite mixed economic signals, the possibility of upside risks to inflation remains, the Board said, pointing to the resilience in consumption figures amidst inflation persistence. Federal and state energy rebates may relieve short-term inflation pressures, though services price inflation remains a notable uncertainty. Unit labor cost growth has eased yet remains elevated, necessitating an uptick in productivity growth for continued inflation mitigation.
From a mid-term perspective, inflation expectations have stayed within the target range, despite the haziness surrounding consumption growth. The Board emphasized a non-committal stance, leaving open all policy options to ensure eventual alignment with inflation targets, without indicating any potential rate cut timeline.
Household disposable incomes have started to stabilize and are anticipated to grow later in the year, bolstered by lower inflation and tax cuts. Rising housing prices have increased household wealth, expected to stimulate consumption over the coming year. Nevertheless, the Board cautions that household consumption could recover slower than expected, potentially dragging down output growth and labor market health.
Uncertainties around the delayed effects of monetary policy, firms’ pricing strategies, and labor market dynamics in an economy still coping with excess demand were noted. Nonetheless, while inflation is on a decelerating trend, it lingers at elevated levels, and the Board foresees a lengthy process to achieve sustainable inflation targets.
Industry observations, such as those from Harvey Bradley, Portfolio Manager at Insight Investment, align with the RBA’s prudent approach. According to Bradley, conflicting economic indicators, such as below-expected Q1 wage growth versus strong April CPI and monthly employment numbers, necessitate a balanced outlook from the RBA amidst other central banks' rate adjustments.
Bradley suggests that the RBA might maintain this cautious stance until more conclusive confidence emerges around reaching inflation targets sustainably, likely seeing potential interest cuts only early next year. The enduring underperformance of Australian government bonds in international comparisons have re-priced expectations, now realigning to fair valuation levels.
Published:Wednesday, 19th Jun 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
Markel Insurance has announced the appointment of Tim Wills as Head of Marine for Australia, marking a significant expansion into the country's marine insurance sector. Based in Sydney, Wills will spearhead the introduction of Markel's marine products, starting with marine cargo coverage. This move represents the company's first foray into the Australian market beyond its existing long-tail lines established two years prior. - read more
Pelagic Risk Services, a specialist marine insurance broker, has announced an increased commitment to the Australian marina industry by upgrading its sponsorship of the Marina Industries Association (MIA) from Silver to Gold. This enhanced partnership underscores Pelagic's dedication to supporting marinas across the nation. - read more
Rhodian Group has announced the launch of Marinex Underwriting, a new marine underwriting agency set to address complex marine insurance needs across the Australian market. Backed by global specialty insurance distributor Amwins, Marinex is co-founded by industry veterans Janelle Karnib, Chris Kelly, and Ainsley Smith. - read more
Australia's marine insurance landscape has welcomed a significant new player with the launch of Marinex Underwriting. This specialised marine underwriting agency aims to address the complex insurance needs of the Australian marine sector, offering tailored solutions backed by global specialty insurance distributor Amwins. - read more
In response to recent shifts in global trade dynamics, GT Insurance is reaffirming its commitment to supporting Australian marine clients navigating these challenges. The imposition of US tariffs-25% on Australian steel and aluminium, and 10% on other exported goods-has introduced new uncertainties for local exporters, particularly in sectors like beef and bulk freight. These tariffs, effective from April 5, 2025, have prompted concerns about declining export volumes and reduced freight margins. - read more
Jetskis are quickly becoming a popular pastime in Australia, offering an exhilarating way to enjoy the sun and surf. The freedom and excitement they provide make them a must-have for many water enthusiasts. With their growing popularity, more Australians are turning to jetskis as their next big purchase. - read more
If you’re looking to finance a new or used jet ski, you may be wondering if it’s possible to get a loan with bad credit. The short answer is yes – and it may be easier than you think, but there are a few things you need to know before you start the process of applying for a loan. - read more
Embarking on the watersport lifestyle can be a thrilling experience, but jet skis, with their cutting-edge features and high-performance capabilities, come with a price tag to match. For many enthusiasts, financing is a practical method to spread out the cost of a jet ski purchase over time, making it more accessible and manageable. - read more
Your credit score is an important number that significantly impacts your financial health. It's a numerical representation of your creditworthiness based on your credit history. Lenders use this score to evaluate the level of risk involved in lending you money. - read more
Owning a jetski is a thrilling and liberating experience for many Australians. The beautiful coastlines and rivers offer the perfect backdrop for enjoying the freedom and excitement that a jetski provides. - read more
Knowledgebase
Underwater Mortgage: A mortgage in which the balance owed on the loan is greater than the value of the property securing the loan.
